Discussion:
Analyst: Nickelodeon Might Be in Danger of Being Dropped by Some TV Distributors
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TMC
2012-06-19 02:03:59 UTC
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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/nickelodeon-viacom-336290

8:54 AM PDT 6/12/2012 by Eriq Gardner

Aggressive cable and satellite television companies could attempt a
pricing war over Viacom's flagship kids' network, suggests Sanford C.
Bernstein's Todd Juenger.

Todd Juenger, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, on Tuesday raised the
specter of the "improbable" -- that cable and satellite services might
drop Viacom network Nickelodeon. The analyst mentioned declining
ratings, the availability of content online and a thirst by cable and
satellite companies to cut costs as linchpins behind a possible action
that would no doubt rock the TV industry.

Although still rather unlikely, the prospect of Viacom losing
affiliate fees and advertising revenue from one of its flagship
stations has been moved by Juenger from being "inconceivable" to being
"improbable," which he notes is "a significant difference."
According to ratings reports, Nickelodeon's viewership is down almost
30 percent in the past several months.

Juenger says the overall kids audience universe is down but targets
cannibalization from online streaming as a primary factor in a decline
in Nick's ratings. He says that ratings are down 10 to 20 percent in
Netflix homes, an estimation that comes from research released two
months ago that compared 9,500 Netflix streamers and 9,500
nonstreamers from a sample of about 35,000 TiVo set-top users.

Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman has contradicted the notion that the
availability of Nickelodeon content on Netflix caused a ratings
erosion, saying he didn't think "the limited amount of Nick library
content on Netflix … has had a significant impact" and blaming lost
ratings on "some ratings systemic issues" at Nielsen.

But Juenger is unconvinced, saying that the problem could extend
beyond Nick to Viacom's other networks including MTV. "We fear the
long-term value of the flagship networks is in jeopardy," he writes.

Perception of streaming cannibalization could matter as much as the
real-or-not truth. One of the comments given by Dish in its
announcement that it would soon drop AMC was that customers could
still see Mad Men, The Walking Dead, Breaking Bad and other AMC shows
through such outlets as Amazon, iTunes and Netflix.

In fact, Juenger offers an imaginary conversation of how a carriage-
fee negotiation might proceed between Viacom and multichannel video
programming distributors (MVPDs) such as cable and satellite
companies:

Viacom: "We're here to talk about the next six years of 8 percent
price increases, plus 2 percent for TV Everywhere rights."

MVPD: "Your ratings are down. 26 percent at Nick. And our subs can get
your content on Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. We should be talking about
how much less we should be paying you, not how much more."

Viacom: "We're investing heavily to restore our audiences."

MVPD: "Great, maybe the audience will come back. But we're not paying
for it ahead of time."

Viacom: "We need 8 percent (plus 2 percent). Take it or leave
it." ("What are you going to do, drop us?")

MVPD: At least threatens, with some credibility, to "leave it."

"If such a public flare-up actually materializes, we believe the stock
will be penalized swiftly and meaningfully," says Juenger, pointing
out that AMC's stock has lagged behind the S&P by 8 percent since
Dish's announcement to drop the channel.

The analyst also cites the introduction of the commercial-skipping
AutoHop as indication that MVPDs are getting more aggressive. He asks,
"If Dish is willing to inject this much disruption and risk into its
affiliate relationships in order to reset the balance on retrans, then
why would it be hard to believe Dish or somebody else would be willing
to take on Viacom in a public pricing war, perhaps even going dark for
some period of time?"

Other analysts have offered more sympathetic explanations for Nick's
ratings woes.

For example, Michael Nathanson at Nomura Equity Research on Monday
gave three reasons for the viewership trends. First, he says that
Nielsen's recently revised TV household demographic estimates are
impacting viewing data by 1 or 2 percent. Second, improved children-
specific programming on Netflix has caused viewing behavior on the
margins to change. Finally, he writes, "While it might be hard to
believe, significantly warmer weather this winter kept kids outside
and away from the TV."

Most of the analysts still have "buy" ratings on Viacom. They argue
that the Paramount Pictures division is doing well, the company has
been executing an aggressive stock-buyback program, and even though
ratings for Viacom networks are said to be down about 10 percent in
total, that hasn't yet translated into much of a loss in advertising
revenue.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0972534/board/flat/200606281?p=1

by Smurfs-Forever 8 hours ago (Mon Jun 18 2012 10:55:59)
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UPDATED Mon Jun 18 2012 13:06:46
Though Vicaom's been in this position before the stakes are a little
different now because of Viacom's low ratings, now Viacom was in a
similar situation with Dish Network/Time Warner back on Dec 31, 09'...
this is when Viacom/Cable/Dish Network had to do that 24 hr deal
before the Jan 1st deadline... this is back when Viacom was a dominant
force..DirecTV would have bragging rights for having Viacom shows in
their package if the dispute prolonged.. Well Viacom is still to a
lesser extent somewhat but not quite dominant, but not like before I
have to be honest though I can't live with out my Comedy Central, but
I sure can live without Reality TV Central - A.K.A. MTV/VH1.

Back then providers felt Viacom was overly charging them but Viacom
was in a better position ratings wise and could basically have the
"Take it or leave it" mentality... Especially when Viacom had the
media/publications on their side pointing their finger at providers
for not willing to pay for what Viacom was asking.


This situations different though cause Viacom is pretty much tanking
in the ratings so now most providers don't feel like they need Vicacom
but in reality they really do, but none the less Sat/Cable providers
feel they have the upper hand because of the bad situation Viacom's in
and Mr. Take Down That YouTube Video Sumner Redstone my not play
hardball this time around.. He's probably begging for providers right
nowhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumner_Redstone



and even though ratings for Viacom networks are said to be down about
10 percent in total, that hasn't yet translated into much of a loss in
advertising revenue.


I'm a little surprised to hear/read that.. I thought advertisers would
be suffering advertising on Nick, I guess not.



The analyst also cites the introduction of the commercial-skipping
AutoHop


Bad for corporations, GREAT for me.




NOTE:


Have no links to the previous situation Viacom/providers were in a few
years ago I'm just going on pure memory so some things might be a
little fuzzy... According to this new article though Viacom's other
divisions are still doing fairly well (Paramount Pictures )...
Nickelodeon on the other hand not so much.

People don't change. You just never knew who they really were.

by huntleydevonte-1 5 hours ago (Mon Jun 18 2012 13:04:07)
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UPDATED Mon Jun 18 2012 13:16:43
Wow, dropping shows is one thing but a whole network? That's a little
too extreme right there. It's not like no one is tuning into the
shows. Millions of people is always watching the network every day.
But I guess the blame can be put towards Nick itself. They have been
doing a poor job airing their TV shows like "Supah Ninjas", "Bucket &
Skinner", "Big Time Rush" that you rarely see on anymore but they're
not cancelled. They're even starting to slack in airing of their newer
shows like "Fred", "How to Rock", and "The Legend of Korra". Nonstop
all you see for the most part is "Spongebob", "iCarly", and
"Victorious". There are lots of people who don't watch those shows
that are fond of the other ones and are tuning out because of the lack
of air time they are given. So perhaps if Nick steps their game up in
airing these other shows occasionally too then perhaps they might get
their viewership back.

It's a real shame how these other shows get treated especially in the
lack of promotion which results in the show being put on hiatus with a
bunch of episodes shelved that should have been aired. That happened
with "Planet Sheen", "The Troop" and the series finale of "True
Jackson". The first two shows should have since had all of their
episodes aired out but they are both on a seemingly chance of that not
happening soon. "Bucket & Skinner" fell victim to this but Nick was
fortunate to air new episodes out after a five month hiatus. So they
really need to step their game up because they're practically the
reason for the decline in viewership. Disney Channel can keep a stable
line-up with all the shows they have so why can't Nick do the same
with the ones they have rather than rely on their top three day in and
day out?

by Smurfs-Forever 4 hours ago (Mon Jun 18 2012 14:19:59)
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I myself can't see why it's post of the year. You or ferrisb1-1 would
have posted it at some point.



Modesty I like that, I can't speak for @ferrisb1-1 but I've usually
posted things about how Nick's in trouble ratings wise but this
information you posted is deep on so many levels because Cable/Sat-
providers aren't just talking about dropping a few Nick shows... they
want to drop the whole network because of mismanagement.. Providers
are loosing money on a station that hardly no one watches...



And I'll give you an example: G4TV was one of the top video game
channels, heck only video game channel but they went the MTV/VH1 rout
and got away from what made them special... They started to air
marathons of Star Trek/Ninja Warriors/Cheaters/Cops.. G4TV got away
from what people admired about the station which was Focusing On
Games.. DirecTV had a little surprise for them, they dropped the
network all together because of low ratings and this same thing just
might happened to Nick.. I hope not.



So trust me this is BIG NEWS on a very big scale... A lot of
childhoods will go bye-bye if this happened... To much history would
just go down the drain, and for what??? bad management???
Ian J. Ball
2012-06-19 02:13:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by TMC
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/nickelodeon-viacom-336290
8:54 AM PDT 6/12/2012 by Eriq Gardner
Aggressive cable and satellite television companies could attempt a
pricing war over Viacom's flagship kids' network, suggests Sanford C.
Bernstein's Todd Juenger.
Todd Juenger, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, on Tuesday raised the
specter of the "improbable" -- that cable and satellite services might
drop Viacom network Nickelodeon. The analyst mentioned declining
ratings, the availability of content online and a thirst by cable and
satellite companies to cut costs as linchpins behind a possible action
that would no doubt rock the TV industry.
Although still rather unlikely, the prospect of Viacom losing
affiliate fees and advertising revenue from one of its flagship
stations has been moved by Juenger from being "inconceivable" to being
"improbable," which he notes is "a significant difference."
According to ratings reports, Nickelodeon's viewership is down almost
30 percent in the past several months.
Juenger says the overall kids audience universe is down but targets
cannibalization from online streaming as a primary factor in a decline
in Nick's ratings. He says that ratings are down 10 to 20 percent in
Netflix homes, an estimation that comes from research released two
months ago that compared 9,500 Netflix streamers and 9,500
nonstreamers from a sample of about 35,000 TiVo set-top users.
Behold - this is the future of all of television is present trends
continue.

All of the networks (and presumably cable companies), not just NICK,
look to be on the way out for the same reasons.

I have no idea how new shows will rolled out in a "streaming" universe
though.

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